The Four Ps of Healthy Enrollment

In a Florida high school, Lewana Patterson teaches Spanish to 10th and 11th graders. The class has 35 students. "I can pay attention to the students who are mastering the material and to the group of students who are really struggling," says Ms. Patterson, "but it's very difficult in a class this size to stay in touch with the average student. Some are getting it, but some aren't." The National Commission on the High-School Senior Year reports that high schools in the U.S. are not adequately preparing nearly enough American young people for college. And, according to The New York Times, more than 60 percent of New York State eighth graders fail annual mathematics and reading exams, raising questions about quality of academic instruction.

In spite of numerous education improvement initiatives over the past decade, national confidence in public education is declining. Gallup Organization polls indicate that 61 percent of Americans say that they are dissatisfied with the quality of K-12 education in the United States today, a nine-percentage-point increase in dissatisfaction from one year ago.

By comparison, public appreciation of independent schools is increasing. According to the 1999 National Public Opinion Poll on Perceptions of Independent Education, conducted by the National Association of Independent Schools, respondents believe that independent schools do a better job than public schools in areas such as:

• Employing high quality teachers
• Preventing drug and alcohol use
• Keeping students motivated and enthusiastic
• Challenging students to do their best
• Supporting a climate that says it's OK to study
• Preparing students academically for college

Thirty percent of respondents said they would choose an independent school "if cost were not a factor." Independent school enrollments are at an all-time high. Nationally, total enrollment in core NAIS-member schools increased 19 percent over the past decade, and the number of schools increased by over 10 percent during the past 20 years.

All of this would suggest a rosy future for independent schools. But the future, as rock musician Tom Petty sings, "ain't what is used to be." Education choices are expanding, and education is again on the national political agenda, manifested in public school improvement initiatives and state-wide assessment mandates. The unprecedented economic boom of the past decade appears over, and the demography of the national school-age population will soon change. As their environment changes, independent schools must make a strong case to maintain their position in the educational marketplace.

The national menu of education alternatives is expanding at a rapid pace. In Orange County, Florida, magnet high schools offer performing arts, science and technology, and health science concentrations. There are now more than 330 International Baccalaureate schools in the U.S., and, according to the California Home School Network, over 1.5 million students nationwide are now taught at home.

A few weeks ago, I joined 115 teachers from 17 schools in 15 states as they held hands and pledged themselves to improving education in their communities. These schools are members of the 120-school network supported by the Foundation for Excellent Schools, a public school improvement initiative whose main goal is demonstrated increases in student achievement.

Independent schools have been advantaged by the solid economy of the past decade. Adjusted for inflation, median tuition in schools increased 30 percent in just the past five years. Tuition dependent, schools have limited financial aid, and thus accessibility is still restricted to families with the ability to pay full cost. In day schools, approximately 14 percent of students receive need-based financial aid; in boarding schools, approximately 24 percent receive aid.

The New York Stock Exchange Composite Index measures the change in the aggregate market value of NYSE common stocks. Annual growth exceeded nine percent between 1994 and 1999, reaching as high as 30 percent in two of those years. But in 2000 the Index increased only one percent, and it decreased by more than 7 percent in 2001. Already an obstacle to many families, high tuitions are even more out of reach as family assets shrink.

As assets shrink, fewer families can afford the cost of independent schools. Middle-class families, with annual incomes in the $80-110 thousand range and modest assets, do not qualify for financial aid under traditional needs-analysis systems. For these families the cost of independent education can easily exceed 20 percent of after-tax income.

During the past decade, school-age population demographics have followed the same trend lines as the economy, supporting growth in school enrollments. While there may be some uncertainty about the economic future, the demographic future is clear. The Western Interstate Commission on Higher Education (WICHE) documents national school enrollments and projects enrollments for the next decade. According to WICHE data, school enrollments reached an all-time high in 1978-79, dropped steadily for several years and leveled out in 1985-86. After 1993-94 the number of graduates began to rise moderately and will do so until 2007-08, at which time they begin to decline by about five percent until 2011-12, the end of the projection period. White graduates are projected to decline by 10 percent between the years 2003 and 2012.

Widening educational choices, a faltering economy, and shifting demographics challenge the enrollment stability of independent schools. At the same time, the pressure on schools to provide a safe environment, to serve individual student needs, and to ensure success as a return on investment, has never been greater. The topic was discussed at length at a recent Independent Educational Consultant Association (IECA) meeting. "Today's parents," remarked one consultant, "who were significantly more successful than their parents, fear that their [children] will not be as successful as they were. Their expectations for what schools will deliver are greater than ever."

"Many independent school students have a strong sense of entitlement," says another. "They expect schools to make them feel good about themselves and their futures." This attitude is echoed in a recent Harvard Business Review interview with child psychiatrist Robert Coles. "My research," says Coles, "has shown that children from very well-to-do backgrounds - many of whose parents are business executives by the way - express an unmistakable sense of entitlement."

The impact of such high expectations on schools is unmistakable. In conversations during the past year with faculties at three boarding schools in Connecticut, Colorado, and Tennessee, I heard the same message: "We can't do it all anymore - teach, coach, and run a dorm. The demands on our time, from parents and students, are just too much."

Challenges to enrollment stability created by changes in the external environment demand strategic responses on the part of schools. In these changing, indeed uncertain times, independent schools should consider the Four P's of healthy enrollments - Product, Position, Promotion, and Price.

Product

Current and potential independent school families are clear about their core expectations, and satisfaction with the educational experience is critical to institutional enrollment health. In my research for schools, when families are asked what attributes they consider essential in a quality school, the responses are consistent:

• Teaching quality
• Academic support available
• College-prep curriculum
• Academic rigor
• Small classes
• Safety
• Strict drug/alcohol policy

This list comes as no surprise. But what is surprising is that schools too often fail to assess family satisfaction, to provide opportunities for feedback about the experience their students are having. In two school studies conducted with a guarantee of confidentiality for respondents, we found that family dissatisfaction was prevalent in areas that were relatively easy to address, and the impact on family satisfaction and enrollment was significant. At a recent workshop on independent-school enrollment, when participants were asked how most families find out about their schools, "word of mouth" was the usual response. Exceptional product is the most effective form of positive promotion. I am convinced that only one out of ten families who are dissatisfied with the educational experience their child is having in a school will tell the school directly, but all ten will tell at least five friends.

Position

As the educational market basket becomes saturated with choices, the degree to which a school positions itself is also essential to enrollment health. When seven independent school heads in an urban area were asked to list the three attributes that distinguished their schools, six of seven said "individualized learning or attention," five of seven said "small classes," and three of seven said "well-rounded curriculum." Only five other attributes were included on the aggregate list, including "safety," "faculty quality," "peer-group quality," "teachers who know their students," and "rigorous education." While consistent with what families seek in independent schools, today this language is less powerful in positioning against some public-school programs, and fails to distinguish one independent school from another. Language that describes each school should be carefully considered, precise, distinctive, and, above all, known to and agreed upon by all members of the school community.

Promotion

School inquiry pools are growing as the search process becomes more electronic, and families now request information from a number of schools at one time by visiting association or consortium websites. But this increase does not necessarily translate into more applications. "We're seeing an increase in inquiries," says Matt Radtke, director of admission at The Webb School (Tennessee), "but the conversion rate of inquiries to applicants is falling." As inquiry pools increase, moving families from the level of interest (inquiry) to desire (visiting and submitting an application) takes more financial and human resources. Families are inundated with one-way, impersonal school information - viewbooks, videos, websites, and form letters. "It costs us over twenty dollars to put a viewbook and video in the mail," says Radtke. Qualifying the inquiry pool to determine level of interest, engaging families in interactive communication, and personalizing communication to address individual student needs and desires are important steps in moving students from interest to desire.

Price

With the economy faltering and with the demography of the school-age population changing, affordability and accessibility must be put at the top of independent-school budget considerations. The rate of annual cost increases should be carefully considered and financial aid allocations increased and tied carefully to well-defined enrollment goals.

Many schools are already responding to the challenges. The Webb School conducts periodic surveys of family satisfaction and has developed, as have Colorado Rocky Mountain School (Colorado) and The Gunnery (Connecticut), a written strategic enrollment plan that includes precise goals, segmented initiatives, and assessments. Indian Springs School (Alabama) is preparing a credit-card size electronic viewbook, and at The Tatnall School (Delaware), the school's core message is displayed in all classrooms. Rabun Gap-Nacoochee School (Georgia) staffs the residence halls with residential "faculty" members who have few or no additional responsibilities. The future for independent education certainly isn't what it used to be. Schools can no longer rely on the varied quality of public education, a strong economy, and a surge in the school-age population to fill desks and beds. They must assure quality education, assess family satisfaction, develop messages that distinguish them in the marketplace, deliver those messages in ways that address individual student issues, and offer their education at a price within reach for tomorrow's families. In combination, those steps can assure institutional enrollment health in an uncertain environment.

David Erdmann is dean of admission and enrollment at Rollins College. He has prior experience as an independent school teacher, administrator, and interim head and serves on the board of trustees for Trinity Preparatory School (Florida). He is also an enrollment consultant to independent schools and directs the Essex Institute for Independent School Enrollment Management.